List of birds most at risk of H5 bird flu revealed

List of Australian birds most at risk of H5 bird flu revealed

As H5 bird flu continues to spread across the country, the Federal Government has released a national risk assessment revealing how Australia’s native birds and mammals could be impacted by the deadly virus. 

Co-developed with leading experts from BirdLife Australia and Charles Darwin University, this groundbreaking analysis identifies which birds are most at risk of extinction in the event of an H5 bird flu outbreak. It includes a national risk score for all Australian native birds and mammals – including subspecies, subpopulations and vagrant species – outlining their risk of population decline on a national scale. It also includes birds found within Australian external territories, such as Christmas, Lorde Howe and Heard and McDonald Islands. 

All birds and mammals are at some risk of H5 bird flu, but with so many Australian species found nowhere else in the world, the potential impacts of the virus are hard to predict. This resource reflects our current understanding of our native species, based on the best available information from both Australia and overseas. It will continue to be updated as the situation evolves and we learn more about H5 bird flu, and is critical in informing Australia’s efforts to plan, prepare and respond to its spread. 

Understanding the risk to Australian birds 

Susceptibility + vulnerability = national risk 

To calculate the risk to Australian birds, researchers first assessed which species are more susceptible to being exposed to and dying from the virus, and their ability to recover from potential population losses. Bird populations that may be more susceptible to the virus and the impacts of an outbreak include: 

• Birds that inhabit or depend on aquatic ecosystems, including marine and wetland environments
  
• Predatory or scavenging species
  
• Birds that congregate in large flocks or at high densities
• Birds that travel long distances, including migratory and nomadic species
  
• Birds with lower reproductive rates, including those that produce fewer offspring, breed less frequently or take longer to reach breeding maturity, and
• Birds with little to no genetic immunity to the virus, including endemic birds found only in Australia and species (or similar species) that have been severely impacted overseas.

These birds are at a higher risk of infection and are more likely to be impacted by an outbreak on a local scale.  

Bird populations that may be more vulnerable and less resilient to the impacts of an outbreak include: 

• Threatened species, especially birds with small populations, and
• Species with a smaller range at any stage of their life cycle, including breeding, flocking and dispersal.

After assessing the predicted susceptibility and vulnerability of each species, experts then assigned a national risk score from the following five categories: extreme, very high, high, moderate and low.  

Each category reflects the predicted national population decline of a species in the event of an outbreak: the higher the risk, the greater the potential for long-term population declines, and the less likely they are to recover. 

View and download the national risk scores for native birds and mammals (as a spreadsheet) here

What birds are most at risk? 

Five Australian birds are considered at extreme risk of H5 bird flu: the Christmas Island Frigatebird, Houtman Abrolhos Lesser Noddy, Herald Petrel and the Heard and Macquarie Island subspecies of Imperial Shag (Cormorant). Three of these five seabirds are endemic, and each breed only on small, remote islands – meaning any population losses could be catastrophic. 

91 Australian birds are at very high risk – mostly waterbirds or seabirds, or endemic subspecies or threatened species with small or geographically isolated populations. This includes the Australian Fairy Tern, Australian Painted Snipe and the Endangered Tasmanian subspecies of Wedge-tailed Eagle.  

Meanwhile, 248 Australian birds are at high risk – including Brolgas and the eastern subspecies of Hooded Plover. 

315 birds are at moderate risk, and a further 1047 bird populations face a low risk of population decline due to H5 bird flu.  

While all Australian birds are at some risk of H5 bird flu, not all birds are susceptible to the virus.  

Some birds are highly susceptible – but have low vulnerability – to H5 bird flu, while other highly vulnerable species are at a low risk of catching or dying from the virus. This includes many threatened birds, including Critically Endangered species like the Swift Parrot, Regent Honeyeater and Plains-wanderer. These species are at a higher level of risk because of their conservation status, but are unlikely to be exposed to or spread the virus.    

Common and widespread species like the Australian Pelican and Black Swan are highly susceptible to catching and spreading H5 bird flu, but are less vulnerable to extinction because of their wide range and large population. However, because specific locations or populations of swans or pelicans could experience mass mortality events and long-term population declines, their national risk is still considered high. 

The wish list 

Although it paints a grim portrait, this list of birds most at risk of H5 bird flu is also an opportunity for action. By identifying which species could be most impacted by an outbreak, we can focus our efforts on monitoring, protecting and recovering our most at-risk wildlife.  

In the event of an outbreak, threatened species susceptible to H5 bird flu are at higher risk of being pushed towards extinction. Their populations are already struggling and declining due to other, growing threats – including the impacts of climate change, habitat destruction and invasive species. There is still no cure for H5 bird flu, which is why it’s so important that we build healthy, resilient bird populations by reducing the threats they face. 

Scaling up and investing in habitat protection and restoration, invasive species control and recovery programs will help strengthen entire ecosystems and better protect people, wildlife and the environment from the virus.  

More funds needed 

Now that we know what Australian birds are at-risk of H5 bird flu, we must urgently scale up efforts to give them the best chance of survival.  

That’s why BirdLife Australia is joining other wildlife and conservation groups in calling on the Federal Government to invest $200 million in an emergency Wildlife Resilience Fund to protect our native wildlife and reduce the threats they’re already facing – including funds for habitat protection, monitoring and on-ground conservation efforts.  

Please add your voice and use our online email tool to contact your MP today.