Climate change threatens Canberra's Superb Fairy-wrens

Experts warn Superb Fairy-wrens in Canberra could go extinct within 30 years

Climate change could soon drive a Canberra population of the much-loved birds to extinction, according to new research.

The Superb Fairy-wren is one of Australia’s most iconic birds.

A familiar sight in suburban parks and gardens, this tiny, charismatic species is common and widespread across south-eastern Australia. Its conservation status is Least Concern: considered unlikely to go extinct in the near future.

But a team of international experts, including researchers from The Australian National University, James Cook University and China’s Hainan University, has warned the much-loved species is now in “imminent danger” – with concerns a well-studied population in Canberra could soon face extinction.

Sounding the alarm

Researchers have tracked the reproduction and survival of Superb Fairy-wrens at Canberra’s Australian National Botanic Gardens – once home to the highest density of the species in Australia – since 1988.

The comprehensive, long-term study has revealed the Canberra population has declined by more than 60%, with last year the worst on record. In 2025, more than half of the adult birds died and only six chicks survived – the largest loss recorded in any one winter.

Using data from 1993–2022, the team measured the impact of climate and temperature on the population over time.

They found that low spring rainfall meant less food available for breeding Superb Fairy-wrens, and the population experienced lower breeding success during dry spring months. The study also found that unusually warm winters and hot summers reduced the survival of adult birds.

While they appear small in isolation, these pressures compound over time because of climate change. And the cumulative effect of these impacts, researchers warn, could be catastrophic.

The ‘many small effects’ of climate change

“What’s striking about this research,” said Dr Holly Parsons, BirdLife Australia’s Manager of Priority Sites, “is that it’s not one extreme event causing problems, but the gradual build-up of pressures across the year – from dry springs to hotter summers – and how those effects compound over time.”

“The Superb Fairy-wren is one of Australia’s most familiar backyard birds,” she continued, “so seeing evidence of decline like this is a real warning sign.”

“It shows that even common, adaptable species aren’t immune to the impacts of climate change.”

The study also examined how the Canberra population will fare under future climate change.

Researchers used various climate models to predict the fairy-wrens’ risk of extinction according to a range of scenarios: from no further climate change, to low, intermediate and very high greenhouse gas emissions.

Their findings were alarming, predicting a high risk of population extinction within 30–40 years due to the “accumulation of many small effects of climate change.”

In three of four climate scenarios, researchers found Superb Fairy-wrens in the Botanic Gardens will likely be driven to extinction within decades – predicting extinction between 2059 and 2062 under the intermediate and very high emission scenarios.

The population is only expected to survive the century in the event of no further climate change – a level that greenhouse gas emissions have already exceeded.

The canary in the coal mine

These findings echo significant declines reported in common birds – especially insect-eating species – in Europe and North America, and correlate with recent reports that climate change will limit population growth and lead to local extinction of wild animals.

The study also concerns for fairy-wren populations across Australia. And for other small, insectivorous birds facing similar threats, researchers warn this common, well-known species could be the canary in the coal mine.

“When common species are showing these sorts of decline – species where it is easier to gather solid data and determine trends, it doesn’t bode well for more sensitive, rarer species,” added Dr Kerryn Herman, who oversees BirdLife Australia’s Superb City Wrens project.

“And these may already be beyond tipping points.”